Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 18°C on November 5?

15 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 5

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$176.76

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,012

Combined PnL+$142.04

Yes5 traders

Total Value$11.3

Total Shares446

Combined PnL+$34.72

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 80.5¢	$160.05	$187.92	+$35.96	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 68.5¢	$164.23	$149.14	-$15.09	54% 10281-8887 (19168)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 67.4¢	$85.4	$109.39	+$26.44	42% 1221-1710 (2931)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 77.2¢	$86.53	$102.65	+$16.12	41% 2318-3356 (5674)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 69.6¢	$74.55	$75.65	+$1.11	39% 1099-1727 (2826)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 52.7¢	$65.21	$69.32	+$23.54	53% 29736-26607 (56343)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$40.59	$66.11	+$25.52	35% 18775-34811 (53586)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$56.6	$60	+$3.4	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 76.8¢	$48.86	$55.93	+$7.07	47% 2253-2525 (4778)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$35.34	$49.71	+$14.37	41% 1223-1782 (3005)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 81.4¢	$33.07	$40.52	+$7.44	47% 1710-1898 (3608)
Istaroth	Noavg 92¢	$240.22	$20	-$0.6	14% 508-3080 (3588)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 64.2¢	$24.51	$17.35	-$2.87	53% 8421-7496 (15917)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15	$5.85	+$4.49	44% 2229-2873 (5102)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$43.08	$5.75	-$0.1	58% 20250-14870 (35120)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.46	$3.9	+$1.44	31% 2671-5963 (8634)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.5¢	$55.94	$1.43	+$53.78	53% 3933-3494 (7427)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 84.1¢	$149.17	$0.71	-$0.27	41% 825-1210 (2035)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$10.26	$0.09	-$10.17	55% 4491-3700 (8191)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$14.83	$0.02	-$14.81	41% 1152-1658 (2810)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$160.05

Value

$187.92

PnL

+$35.96

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

Poligarch

Invested

$164.23

Value

$149.14

PnL

-$15.09

Record

54%

10281-8887 (19168)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$85.4

Value

$109.39

PnL

+$26.44

Record

42%

1221-1710 (2931)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$86.53

Value

$102.65

PnL

+$16.12

Record

41%

2318-3356 (5674)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$74.55

Value

$75.65

PnL

+$1.11

Record

39%

1099-1727 (2826)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$65.21

Value

$69.32

PnL

+$23.54

Record

53%

29736-26607 (56343)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$40.59

Value

$66.11

PnL

+$25.52

Record

35%

18775-34811 (53586)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$56.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$3.4

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$48.86

Value

$55.93

PnL

+$7.07

Record

47%

2253-2525 (4778)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$35.34

Value

$49.71

PnL

+$14.37

Record

41%

1223-1782 (3005)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$33.07

Value

$40.52

PnL

+$7.44

Record

47%

1710-1898 (3608)

Istaroth

Invested

$240.22

Value

$20

PnL

-$0.6

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$24.51

Value

$17.35

PnL

-$2.87

Record

53%

8421-7496 (15917)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$5.85

PnL

+$4.49

Record

44%

2229-2873 (5102)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$43.08

Value

$5.75

PnL

-$0.1

Record

58%

20250-14870 (35120)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.46

Value

$3.9

PnL

+$1.44

Record

31%

2671-5963 (8634)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.94

Value

$1.43

PnL

+$53.78

Record

53%

3933-3494 (7427)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$149.17

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$0.27

Record

41%

825-1210 (2035)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.26

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$10.17

Record

55%

4491-3700 (8191)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.83

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.81

Record

41%

1152-1658 (2810)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 20 top traders (75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.