Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 12°C on November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 47¢ · $551 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
1 arb excluded
$551.35
$21.48
49.2¢ → 47¢
-5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 46.8¢ | $181 | $203.2 | +$22.2 | 47% 667-746 (1413) |
24 241532532432CTR | Noavg 48.3¢ | $186.62 | $179.68 | -$6.94 | 59% 1808-1259 (3067) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $106 | $100 | -$2.96 | 20% 312-1280 (1592) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 53¢ | $53 | $54.5 | +$1.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50.1¢ | $50.08 | $45.5 | -$4.46 | |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 52.5¢ | $57.12 | $59.29 | +$2.17 | 57% 13779-10552 (24331) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $5.13 | $5.08 | -$0.05 | 50% 1827-1806 (3633) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yes | $4.09 | $4.09 | +$4.09 | 36% 15579-27522 (43101) |
Invested
$181
Value
$203.2
PnL
+$22.2
Record
47%
667-746 (1413)
Invested
$186.62
Value
$179.68
PnL
-$6.94
Record
59%
1808-1259 (3067)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$106
Value
$100
PnL
-$2.96
Record
20%
312-1280 (1592)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.12
Value
$59.29
PnL
+$2.17
Record
57%
13779-10552 (24331)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
1827-1806 (3633)
Invested
$4.09
Value
$4.09
PnL
+$4.09
Record
36%
15579-27522 (43101)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.