Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on November 7?

1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 89¢ · $449 held · ended Nov 7

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 14%

Total Value

$448.78

Combined PnL

$112.15

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$283.07

Total Shares960

Combined PnL+$109.79

No6 traders

Total Value$165.71

Total Shares250

Combined PnL+$2.36

Yes — 14%No — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Yesavg 18.1¢	$173.28	$283.07	+$109.79	38% 887-1421 (2308)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 72.3¢	$114.86	$105.43	-$1.23	56% 781-606 (1387)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$32.7	$21.48	-$6.05	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$24.26	$14.85	-$1.42	53% 8691-7793 (16484)
Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100	Noavg 82¢	$16.24	$13.14	-$1.68	61% 687-436 (1123)
PO PoligarchCTR<$100	Noavg 67.9¢	$6.04	$5.91	-$0.13	54% 10730-9241 (19971)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$1.56	$4.9	+$12.87	39% 1298-2033 (3331)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Yes

Invested

$173.28

Value

$283.07

PnL

+$109.79

Record

38%

887-1421 (2308)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$114.86

Value

$105.43

PnL

-$1.23

Record

56%

781-606 (1387)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$32.7

Value

$21.48

PnL

-$6.05

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$24.26

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$1.42

Record

53%

8691-7793 (16484)

Roflan-ludomanCTR<$100

Invested

$16.24

Value

$13.14

PnL

-$1.68

Record

61%

687-436 (1123)

PoligarchCTR<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$5.91

PnL

-$0.13

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$1.56

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$12.87

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.