Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (65%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on November 4?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 35¢ · $231 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$230.83
$14.15
31.2¢ → 35¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $91.44 | $103.1 | +$11.66 | 42% 785-1085 (1870) |
PO PoligarchARB<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $100.82 | $100.83 | +$0.01 | 53% 9749-8519 (18268) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.4¢ | $82.89 | $79.98 | -$2.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $17.93 | $20.85 | +$2.92 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31.8¢ | $21.62 | $23.8 | +$2.22 | 58% 2448-1791 (4239) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $2.82 | $3.09 | +$0.26 | 20% 2494-9935 (12429) |
Invested
$91.44
Value
$103.1
PnL
+$11.66
Record
42%
785-1085 (1870)
Invested
$100.82
Value
$100.83
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
9749-8519 (18268)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.62
Value
$23.8
PnL
+$2.22
Record
58%
2448-1791 (4239)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.82
Value
$3.09
PnL
+$0.26
Record
20%
2494-9935 (12429)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.