Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on November 6?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 6
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$271.01
$0.78
62.8¢ → 50¢
-20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 63.2¢ | $228.27 | $158.5 | -$26.77 | 13% 533-3528 (4061) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 42¢ | $75.15 | $101.42 | +$26.27 | 40% 845-1252 (2097) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $9.39 | $8.5 | -$0.89 | 34% 19350-36905 (56255) |
12 123987456<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $0.18 | $2.35 | +$2.17 | 42% 2357-3224 (5581) |
IstarothInvested
$228.27
Value
$158.5
PnL
-$26.77
Record
13%
533-3528 (4061)
Invested
$75.15
Value
$101.42
PnL
+$26.27
Record
40%
845-1252 (2097)
Invested
$9.39
Value
$8.5
PnL
-$0.89
Record
34%
19350-36905 (56255)
Invested
$0.18
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$2.17
Record
42%
2357-3224 (5581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.