Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on November 3?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 3

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$157.48

Smart Money Entry

74.9¢ → 97.4¢

+30% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$374.67

Total Shares602

Combined PnL+$192.31

No17 traders

Total Value$644.72

Total Shares831

Combined PnL-$34.84

Yes — 19%No — 81%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 28.3¢	$168.76	$362.67	+$193.9	42% 779-1075 (1854)
balthazar	Noavg 79.3¢	$207.09	$246.64	+$39.55	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
Istaroth	Noavg 71.7¢	$149.25	$99.59	-$48.41	16% 427-2305 (2732)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$86.71	$77.86	-$8.85	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 66.3¢	$81.1	$55.6	-$25.5	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 91.7¢	$41.59	$42.87	+$1.27	30% 2095-4887 (6982)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 88.4¢	$17.49	$18.71	+$1.22	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 65.5¢	$26.67	$18.02	+$1.91	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$15.34	$17.4	+$2.05	40% 1008-1504 (2512)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$19.06	$16.97	+$1.71	40% 980-1494 (2474)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 70.3¢	$21.25	$13.45	-$3.37	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 79.9¢	$17.48	$10.24	+$0.94	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.9¢	$15.98	$8.4	-$3.19	38% 947-1564 (2511)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 83.1¢	$7.32	$8.21	+$0.89	39% 974-1548 (2522)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 66¢	$4.85	$5.37	+$0.51	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 66¢	$3.96	$4.38	+$0.42	27% 6708-18534 (25242)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.25	$3.65	+$0.4	50% 473-472 (945)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.65	+$0.45	72% 24759-9851 (34610)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.1¢	$11.71	$3.33	+$1.47	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$10.22	$2.12	-$0.03	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.28	+$0.13	40% 2066-3099 (5165)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$168.76

Value

$362.67

PnL

+$193.9

Record

42%

779-1075 (1854)

balthazar

Invested

$207.09

Value

$246.64

PnL

+$39.55

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

Istaroth

Invested

$149.25

Value

$99.59

PnL

-$48.41

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$86.71

Value

$77.86

PnL

-$8.85

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$81.1

Value

$55.6

PnL

-$25.5

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$41.59

Value

$42.87

PnL

+$1.27

Record

30%

2095-4887 (6982)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.49

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$1.22

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$26.67

Value

$18.02

PnL

+$1.91

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$15.34

Value

$17.4

PnL

+$2.05

Record

40%

1008-1504 (2512)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$19.06

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$1.71

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$21.25

Value

$13.45

PnL

-$3.37

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$17.48

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$0.94

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.98

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$3.19

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$7.32

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$0.89

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5.37

PnL

+$0.51

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$4.38

PnL

+$0.42

Record

27%

6708-18534 (25242)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

473-472 (945)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.45

Record

72%

24759-9851 (34610)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.71

Value

$3.33

PnL

+$1.47

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.22

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0.13

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.