Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on November 15?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $104 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$104.36

Combined PnL

-$20.07

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 99.2¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$102.34

Total Shares103

Combined PnL-$1.39

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.02

Total Shares224

Combined PnL-$18.68

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$35.2	$35.09	-$0.11	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$24.83	$24.79	-$0.04	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.16	$10.12	-$0.04	50% 919-925 (1844)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$10.39	$9.98	-$0.41	31% 1122-2474 (3596)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$9.95	$9.93	-$0.02	34% 352-671 (1023)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$15.26	$5.31	-$0.85	30% 1175-2733 (3908)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$4.53	$4.62	+$0.09	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$2.5	$2.5	-$0	99% 1609-24 (1633)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.36	$1.16	-$0.2	47% 1242-1391 (2633)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.59	$0.73	-$5.87	54% 1238-1053 (2291)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.1	$0.09	-$0.02	41% 276-405 (681)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$145.72	$0.05	-$12.59	35% 3905-7251 (11156)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.2

Value

$35.09

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$24.83

Value

$24.79

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

50%

919-925 (1844)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$10.39

Value

$9.98

PnL

-$0.41

Record

31%

1122-2474 (3596)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$9.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

34%

352-671 (1023)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$15.26

Value

$5.31

PnL

-$0.85

Record

30%

1175-2733 (3908)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$4.53

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0

Record

99%

1609-24 (1633)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$1.16

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

1242-1391 (2633)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.59

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$5.87

Record

54%

1238-1053 (2291)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

276-405 (681)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$145.72

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$12.59

Record

35%

3905-7251 (11156)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.