Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on November 1?

1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 25¢ · $444 held · ends Nov 1

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$444.37

Combined PnL

$73.96

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$197.02

Total Shares788

Combined PnL+$78.8

No3 traders

Total Value$247.36

Total Shares325

Combined PnL-$4.84

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$107.54	$197.02	+$78.8	47% 698-781 (1479)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 81.6¢	$169.88	$156.19	-$0.16	54% 466-390 (856)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$79.45	$80.25	-$1.87	59% 1919-1349 (3268)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$36.5	$10.92	-$2.8	56% 14220-11020 (25240)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.54

Value

$197.02

PnL

+$78.8

Record

47%

698-781 (1479)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$169.88

Value

$156.19

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

466-390 (856)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$79.45

Value

$80.25

PnL

-$1.87

Record

59%

1919-1349 (3268)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$36.5

Value

$10.92

PnL

-$2.8

Record

56%

14220-11020 (25240)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.0%

25.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$270.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

370.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.