Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on October 30?

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 68¢ · $431 held · ends Oct 30

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$431.01

Combined PnL

$1.51

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$83.57

Total Shares133

Combined PnL-$2.35

Yes1 trader

Total Value$57.15

Total Shares154

Combined PnL+$3.86

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 60.3¢	$187.36	$180.63	-$5.13	21% 295-1083 (1378)
└ No leg	Noavg 60.3¢	$108.93	$113.79	+$4.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42.5¢	$76.84	$66.83	-$10
24 241532532432ARB<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$100.28	$109.66	+$9.38	59% 1714-1182 (2896)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$71.3	$75.32	+$4.02
└ No leg	Noavg 53.2¢	$28.99	$34.35	+$5.36
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 66¢	$66	$63	-$3	53% 6458-5657 (12115)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$53.29	$57.15	+$3.86	62% 1438-883 (2321)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62.4¢	$26.62	$20.57	+$0.65	57% 13427-10262 (23689)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$187.36

Value

$180.63

PnL

-$5.13

Record

21%

295-1083 (1378)

Both legs:

Invested

$100.28

Value

$109.66

PnL

+$9.38

Record

59%

1714-1182 (2896)

Both legs:

Yes$71.335¢+$4.02

No$28.9953.2¢+$5.36

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$66

Value

$63

PnL

-$3

Record

53%

6458-5657 (12115)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$53.29

Value

$57.15

PnL

+$3.86

Record

62%

1438-883 (2321)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$26.62

Value

$20.57

PnL

+$0.65

Record

57%

13427-10262 (23689)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.