Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on November 6?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 8.0¢ · $109 held · ended Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$108.77
-$137.25
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 26.1¢ | $205.51 | $63.09 | -$142.42 | 40% 854-1296 (2150) |
 Roflan-ludoman<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $14.8 | $18.4 | -$0.3 | 62% 667-404 (1071) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $12.26 | $16.56 | +$1.53 | 42% 2368-3249 (5617) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $15.05 | $10.73 | +$3.95 | 58% 21387-15516 (36903) |
Invested
$205.51
Value
$63.09
PnL
-$142.42
Record
40%
854-1296 (2150)
Roflan-ludoman<$100Invested
$14.8
Value
$18.4
PnL
-$0.3
Record
62%
667-404 (1071)
Invested
$12.26
Value
$16.56
PnL
+$1.53
Record
42%
2368-3249 (5617)
Invested
$15.05
Value
$10.73
PnL
+$3.95
Record
58%
21387-15516 (36903)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.