Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on November 5?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $473 held · ended Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$473.31
$68.98
91.7¢ → 99.9¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.6¢ | $299.81 | $379.9 | +$1.3 | 97% 188-6 (194) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $46.29 | $46.3 | +$0.01 | 52% 30789-28932 (59721) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 7.6¢ | $11.77 | $40.41 | +$122.06 | 45% 1780-2176 (3956) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $3.64 | $3.69 | +$0.05 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $57.44 | $3.01 | -$54.43 | 39% 835-1312 (2147) |
Invested
$299.81
Value
$379.9
PnL
+$1.3
Record
97%
188-6 (194)
balthazar<$100Invested
$46.29
Value
$46.3
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
30789-28932 (59721)
Invested
$11.77
Value
$40.41
PnL
+$122.06
Record
45%
1780-2176 (3956)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$3.69
PnL
+$0.05
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
Invested
$57.44
Value
$3.01
PnL
-$54.43
Record
39%
835-1312 (2147)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.