Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on November 15?

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 95¢ · $81 held · ended Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$80.84

Combined PnL

$0.44

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$79.55

Total Shares82

Combined PnL+$0.58

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.29

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$0.13

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$23.95	$24.88	+$0.93	42% 808-1111 (1919)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$20.28	$19.46	-$0.82	47% 898-1015 (1913)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 93¢	$14.04	$14.59	+$0.54	71% 954-392 (1346)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88¢	$6.62	$7.48	+$0.86	53% 2316-2081 (4397)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$4.89	$4.84	-$0.05	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$14.84	$4.77	-$0.86	24% 796-2588 (3384)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1631-24 (1655)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$1.06	$1.03	-$0.03	50% 932-930 (1862)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.98	$0.7	-$0.28	52% 923-846 (1769)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$0.19	$0.34	+$0.15	58% 872-632 (1504)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.06	$0.13	+$0.07	49% 868-890 (1758)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$0.2	$0.12	-$0.07	60% 888-604 (1492)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$23.95

Value

$24.88

PnL

+$0.93

Record

42%

808-1111 (1919)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$20.28

Value

$19.46

PnL

-$0.82

Record

47%

898-1015 (1913)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$14.04

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$0.54

Record

71%

954-392 (1346)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.62

Value

$7.48

PnL

+$0.86

Record

53%

2316-2081 (4397)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.89

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$14.84

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$0.86

Record

24%

796-2588 (3384)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1631-24 (1655)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.06

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

932-930 (1862)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$0.28

Record

52%

923-846 (1769)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.15

Record

58%

872-632 (1504)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

868-890 (1758)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$0.07

Record

60%

888-604 (1492)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.