Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on November 12?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 95¢ · $507 held · ended Nov 12

Yes5¢No95¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$507.21

Combined PnL

-$108.25

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 95¢

+2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$457.16

Total Shares475

Combined PnL-$2.2

Yes2 traders

Total Value$50.05

Total Shares1,231

Combined PnL-$106.05

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95¢	$516.16	$349.02	-$10.92	35% 414-754 (1168)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.7¢	$53.79	$48.61	+$3.59	53% 922-814 (1736)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$36.41	$39.32	+$2.91	76% 675-216 (891)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 12.1¢	$110.25	$36.39	-$73.85	59% 1163-798 (1961)
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 17.3¢	$186.88	$13.66	-$32.19	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 71.6¢	$4.04	$5.41	+$1.38	42% 838-1166 (2004)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 94¢	$5	$5.09	+$0.09	27% 158-429 (587)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$4.86	$4.85	-$0.01	48% 510-557 (1067)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$4.09	$4.84	+$0.76	62% 473-292 (765)

241532532432

Invested

$516.16

Value

$349.02

PnL

-$10.92

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.79

Value

$48.61

PnL

+$3.59

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$36.41

Value

$39.32

PnL

+$2.91

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$110.25

Value

$36.39

PnL

-$73.85

Record

59%

1163-798 (1961)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$186.88

Value

$13.66

PnL

-$32.19

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

$5.41

PnL

+$1.38

Record

42%

838-1166 (2004)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.09

Record

27%

158-429 (587)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

510-557 (1067)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.84

PnL

+$0.76

Record

62%

473-292 (765)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.