Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on November 5?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 47¢ · $158 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$158.49
$31.13
23¢ → 47¢
+105% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $61.7 | $111.68 | +$49.97 | 44% 797-1006 (1803) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $25.57 | $20.5 | -$4.84 | 14% 461-2758 (3219) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $18.19 | $10.5 | -$7.69 | 58% 2493-1822 (4315) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 50.1¢ | $10.41 | $9.14 | -$1.26 | 58% 19471-14317 (33788) |
PO PoligarchCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $11.72 | $6.67 | -$5.05 | 54% 10037-8676 (18713) |
Invested
$61.7
Value
$111.68
PnL
+$49.97
Record
44%
797-1006 (1803)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$25.57
Value
$20.5
PnL
-$4.84
Record
14%
461-2758 (3219)
Invested
$18.19
Value
$10.5
PnL
-$7.69
Record
58%
2493-1822 (4315)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$9.14
PnL
-$1.26
Record
58%
19471-14317 (33788)
Invested
$11.72
Value
$6.67
PnL
-$5.05
Record
54%
10037-8676 (18713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.