Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on November 4?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 89¢ · $696 held · ended Nov 4

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$696.08

Combined PnL

$6.48

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 89¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$662.39

Total Shares737

Combined PnL+$10.97

Yes2 traders

Total Value$33.69

Total Shares321

Combined PnL-$4.49

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Noavg 87.4¢	$509.68	$379.58	+$9.02	42% 799-1116 (1915)
HE hello.67	Noavg 88.7¢	$230.63	$232.64	+$2.01	48% 2166-2363 (4529)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.1¢	$36.22	$31.5	-$4.72	58% 2490-1820 (4310)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.4¢	$28.49	$26.57	-$0.29	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 87¢	$11.31	$11.64	+$0.46	54% 9970-8663 (18633)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 91.4¢	$7.62	$7.46	-$0.16	42% 6979-9779 (16758)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$4.59	$4.51	-$0.07	47% 1679-1862 (3541)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$1.96	$2.19	+$0.23	53% 8200-7292 (15492)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Invested

$509.68

Value

$379.58

PnL

+$9.02

Record

42%

799-1116 (1915)

hello.67

Invested

$230.63

Value

$232.64

PnL

+$2.01

Record

48%

2166-2363 (4529)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.22

Value

$31.5

PnL

-$4.72

Record

58%

2490-1820 (4310)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.49

Value

$26.57

PnL

-$0.29

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$11.31

Value

$11.64

PnL

+$0.46

Record

54%

9970-8663 (18633)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$7.62

Value

$7.46

PnL

-$0.16

Record

42%

6979-9779 (16758)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$4.51

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

1679-1862 (3541)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.19

PnL

+$0.23

Record

53%

8200-7292 (15492)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.