Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on November 14?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $140 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 22%
$140.26
-$51.53
99.7¢ → 99.8¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
39h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $119.69 | $119.73 | +$0.04 | 38% 286-470 (756) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $19.9 | $19.96 | +$0.06 | 53% 7196-6292 (13488) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $27.29 | $0.3 | -$26.99 | 25% 46-138 (184) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.82 | $0.12 | -$10.7 | 43% 5129-6814 (11943) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.37 | $0.09 | -$8.27 | 54% 2311-1998 (4309) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.65 | $0.02 | -$1.63 | 39% 3706-5907 (9613) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.57 | $0.02 | -$1.55 | 42% 1655-2297 (3952) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.26 | $0.01 | -$1.25 | 42% 2644-3715 (6359) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.26 | $0.01 | -$1.25 | 25% 730-2139 (2869) |
Invested
$119.69
Value
$119.73
PnL
+$0.04
Record
38%
286-470 (756)
Invested
$19.9
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
7196-6292 (13488)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$0.3
PnL
-$26.99
Record
25%
46-138 (184)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.82
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$10.7
Record
43%
5129-6814 (11943)
Invested
$8.37
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$8.27
Record
54%
2311-1998 (4309)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.63
Record
39%
3706-5907 (9613)
Invested
$1.57
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$1.55
Record
42%
1655-2297 (3952)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.25
Record
42%
2644-3715 (6359)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.25
Record
25%
730-2139 (2869)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.