Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on November 14?
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $137 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 22%
$137.48
-$71.43
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 99.9¢ | $124.88 | $124.94 | +$0.06 | 29% 232-564 (796) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $12.19 | $12.19 | +$0.01 | 29% 1096-2660 (3756) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $27.29 | $0.15 | -$27.14 | 25% 45-134 (179) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.82 | $0.06 | -$10.76 | 44% 5036-6461 (11497) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.55 | $0.05 | -$9.5 | 31% 146-327 (473) |
HE hello.67CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $8.37 | $0.05 | -$8.32 | 56% 2268-1802 (4070) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.55 | $0.03 | -$4.52 | 29% 3158-7813 (10971) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.65 | $0.01 | -$1.64 | 39% 3600-5658 (9258) |
 LucerysCTR | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $101.9 | $0 | -$9.62 | 36% 3727-6719 (10446) |
Invested
$124.88
Value
$124.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
29%
232-564 (796)
Invested
$12.19
Value
$12.19
PnL
+$0.01
Record
29%
1096-2660 (3756)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$27.14
Record
25%
45-134 (179)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.82
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.76
Record
44%
5036-6461 (11497)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.55
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.5
Record
31%
146-327 (473)
Invested
$8.37
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$8.32
Record
56%
2268-1802 (4070)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.52
Record
29%
3158-7813 (10971)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.64
Record
39%
3600-5658 (9258)
LucerysCTRInvested
$101.9
Value
$0
PnL
-$9.62
Record
36%
3727-6719 (10446)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.