Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on November 14?
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $250 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 11%
$250.3
-$76.66
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $249.75 | $249.88 | +$0.13 | 99% 1095-12 (1107) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $27.29 | $0.15 | -$27.14 | 26% 43-125 (168) |
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $12.47 | $0.07 | -$12.4 | 41% 1573-2277 (3850) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $10.82 | $0.06 | -$10.76 | 45% 4975-6198 (11173) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.55 | $0.05 | -$9.5 | 31% 114-255 (369) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $9.45 | $0.05 | -$9.4 | 36% 3652-6517 (10169) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.55 | $0.03 | -$4.52 | 29% 3101-7566 (10667) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.63 | $0.01 | -$2.61 | 39% 3489-5413 (8902) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 37% 1484-2495 (3979) |
Invested
$249.75
Value
$249.88
PnL
+$0.13
Record
99%
1095-12 (1107)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$27.14
Record
26%
43-125 (168)
Invested
$12.47
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$12.4
Record
41%
1573-2277 (3850)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$10.82
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$10.76
Record
45%
4975-6198 (11173)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$9.55
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.5
Record
31%
114-255 (369)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.4
Record
36%
3652-6517 (10169)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$4.52
Record
29%
3101-7566 (10667)
Invested
$2.63
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.61
Record
39%
3489-5413 (8902)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
37%
1484-2495 (3979)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.