Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 51°F or below on November 14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $165 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$165.31

Combined PnL

-$70.83

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$164.92

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$0.08

Yes8 traders

Total Value$0.39

Total Shares784

Combined PnL-$70.91

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$99.9	$99.95	+$0.05	99% 1015-11 (1026)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$64.94	$64.97	+$0.03	30% 187-428 (615)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$27.29	$0.15	-$27.14	27% 42-113 (155)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.82	$0.06	-$10.76	45% 4955-6107 (11062)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.55	$0.05	-$9.5	30% 108-251 (359)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.45	$0.05	-$9.4	36% 3613-6424 (10037)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.56	$0.04	-$6.53	41% 1570-2276 (3846)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.55	$0.03	-$4.52	29% 3079-7466 (10545)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.63	$0.01	-$2.61	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	37% 1467-2446 (3913)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$0.05

Record

99%

1015-11 (1026)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$64.94

Value

$64.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

30%

187-428 (615)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.29

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$27.14

Record

27%

42-113 (155)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.82

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$10.76

Record

45%

4955-6107 (11062)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.55

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.5

Record

30%

108-251 (359)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.45

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.4

Record

36%

3613-6424 (10037)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.56

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.53

Record

41%

1570-2276 (3846)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.52

Record

29%

3079-7466 (10545)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.61

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

37%

1467-2446 (3913)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.