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Yes
balthazar<$100NoNoYesYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100YesNo
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 28?
Resolved No. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
8
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$145.49
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares217
Combined PnL-$145.49
No3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 63%No — 37%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 67¢ | $145.49 | — | -$145.49 | 54% 268-225 (493) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 23.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6330-5547 (11877) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 4340-9336 (13676) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 68.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 60% 1599-1056 (2655) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 66.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTRInvested
$145.49
Value
—
PnL
-$145.49
Record
54%
268-225 (493)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6330-5547 (11877)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
0X
0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
4340-9336 (13676)
24
241532532432CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
1599-1056 (2655)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
XT
xtxpleasecallme<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd3098514...e00ec5
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-october-28-2026-18c