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NoYes
balthazar<$100NoNoNoYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on October 27?
Resolved No. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
6
No 50%
Total Value
$77.66
Combined PnL
$2.49
Smart Money Signal
No
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$77.66
Total Shares78
Combined PnL+$4.32
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares56
Combined PnL-$1.83
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 94.5¢ | $75.56 | $77.66 | +$4.32 | 61% 1529-967 (2496) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $1.83 | — | -$1.83 | 55% 217-181 (398) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20522-12983 (33505) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | — | — | +$0 | 52% 2416-2209 (4625) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14582-26244 (40826) |
24
241532532432<$100Invested
$75.56
Value
$77.66
PnL
+$4.32
Record
61%
1529-967 (2496)
HE
HellYeahTraderCTR<$100Invested
$1.83
Value
—
PnL
-$1.83
Record
55%
217-181 (398)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20522-12983 (33505)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
12909-9833 (22742)
ME
merod<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
2416-2209 (4625)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14582-26244 (40826)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x39f0f867...507f9a
Slug
highest-temperature-in-qingdao-on-october-27-2026-16c