Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 5?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 100¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$221.23
$4.05
90.5¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 88.9¢ | $90.95 | $58.54 | +$4.47 | 31% 2678-6002 (8680) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $65.2 | $58.27 | +$2.32 | 58% 12052-8655 (20707) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 93.2¢ | $142.32 | $51.99 | +$3.49 | 58% 20277-14893 (35170) |
PO Poligarch | Noavg 87.7¢ | $131.21 | $51.74 | +$0.95 | 54% 10291-8895 (19186) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $0.51 | $0.49 | -$0.02 | 53% 8428-7501 (15929) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $0.54 | $0.19 | -$0.35 | 20% 2785-10964 (13749) |
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $56.74 | $0.03 | -$6.8 | 58% 6686-4767 (11453) |
Invested
$90.95
Value
$58.54
PnL
+$4.47
Record
31%
2678-6002 (8680)
Invested
$65.2
Value
$58.27
PnL
+$2.32
Record
58%
12052-8655 (20707)
Invested
$142.32
Value
$51.99
PnL
+$3.49
Record
58%
20277-14893 (35170)
Invested
$131.21
Value
$51.74
PnL
+$0.95
Record
54%
10291-8895 (19186)
Invested
$0.51
Value
$0.49
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
8428-7501 (15929)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$0.35
Record
20%
2785-10964 (13749)
Invested
$56.74
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$6.8
Record
58%
6686-4767 (11453)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.