Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on November 2?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$148.2

Combined PnL

-$1.97

Smart Money Entry

99.7¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$146.11

Total Shares147

Combined PnL-$0.6

Yes3 traders

Total Value$2.09

Total Shares18

Combined PnL-$1.37

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$45.24	$45.09	-$0.15	58% 3434-2465 (5899)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$44.96	$44.61	-$0.35	52% 1127-1021 (2148)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$19.47	$19.45	-$0.01	46% 89-104 (193)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$17.28	$17.25	-$0.03	48% 349-380 (729)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$10.16	$10.17	+$0.01	49% 379-389 (768)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$9.61	$9.53	-$0.08	51% 1004-958 (1962)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.2¢	$1.43	$2.05	-$1.36	38% 27-45 (72)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$0.01	52% 570-533 (1103)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0	50% 456-455 (911)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$45.24

Value

$45.09

PnL

-$0.15

Record

58%

3434-2465 (5899)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$44.96

Value

$44.61

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

1127-1021 (2148)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$19.47

Value

$19.45

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

89-104 (193)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$17.28

Value

$17.25

PnL

-$0.03

Record

48%

349-380 (729)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.17

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

379-389 (768)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$9.61

Value

$9.53

PnL

-$0.08

Record

51%

1004-958 (1962)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.43

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$1.36

Record

38%

27-45 (72)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

570-533 (1103)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

456-455 (911)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.