Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 31?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $108 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$108.34
$7.48
90.1¢ → 96.6¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 88.8¢ | $53.28 | $57.98 | +$4.7 | 59% 1808-1259 (3067) |
RO rocky42019<$100 | Noavg 88.5¢ | $38.92 | $30.35 | +$2.89 | 42% 1717-2340 (4057) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $20.12 | $20.01 | -$0.11 | 20% 312-1280 (1592) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.