Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on November 15?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $157 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$157.41

Combined PnL

-$2.5

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$157.31

Total Shares157

Combined PnL+$0.06

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.1

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$2.57

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$75.51	$75.58	+$0.06	98% 1504-23 (1527)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.16	$30.16	-$0	51% 818-797 (1615)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.99	$14.99	+$0	38% 3759-6065 (9824)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$13.18	$13.18	+$0	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.99	$10.99	+$0	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$9.89	$9.89	+$0	51% 901-849 (1750)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.38	$1.38	+$0	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$1.15	$1.15	+$0	49% 877-897 (1774)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.85	$0.06	-$0.79	30% 251-582 (833)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.03	-$0.42	58% 820-591 (1411)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.9	$0.01	-$1.35	24% 752-2355 (3107)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$75.51

Value

$75.58

PnL

+$0.06

Record

98%

1504-23 (1527)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$30.16

Value

$30.16

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$14.99

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

3759-6065 (9824)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$13.18

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.79

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.42

Record

58%

820-591 (1411)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.9

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.35

Record

24%

752-2355 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.