Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 15°C on November 15?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 30¢ · $190 held · ends Nov 15

Yes70¢No30¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$190.05

Combined PnL

$45.14

Research grade

NeutralNo at 30%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$176.74

Total Shares247

Combined PnL+$48.83

No7 traders

Total Value$12.92

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$3.69

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Yesavg 46¢	$90.01	$127.84	+$42.33	42% 754-1062 (1816)
PO Poligarch<$100	Yesavg 72.1¢	$37.09	$37.66	+$0.58	71% 917-377 (1294)
Haradwaith<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.85	$7.11	+$6.26	30% 251-582 (833)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 38.5¢	$8.61	$6.71	-$1.9	51% 901-849 (1750)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$4.46	$4.12	-$0.34	37% 304-520 (824)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$3.35	$2.6	-$0.75	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$1.8	$1.46	-$0.34	57% 800-608 (1408)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$0.92	$0.8	-$0.12	51% 818-797 (1615)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$0.67	$0.67	+$0	59% 827-567 (1394)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$0.43	$0.43	-$0	52% 865-790 (1655)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 25.2¢	$3.15	$0.26	-$0.58	53% 2122-1900 (4022)

241532532432

Yes

Invested

$90.01

Value

$127.84

PnL

+$42.33

Record

42%

754-1062 (1816)

Poligarch<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.09

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$0.58

Record

71%

917-377 (1294)

Haradwaith<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$6.26

Record

30%

251-582 (833)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$8.61

Value

$6.71

PnL

-$1.9

Record

51%

901-849 (1750)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.46

Value

$4.12

PnL

-$0.34

Record

37%

304-520 (824)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$3.35

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.75

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$0.34

Record

57%

800-608 (1408)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.12

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.67

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

827-567 (1394)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$3.15

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 30%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.