Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on November 14?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 100¢ · $180 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$179.55

Combined PnL

-$40.93

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$179.09

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$1.1

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.47

Total Shares468

Combined PnL-$42.03

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$67.97	$69.93	+$1.96	40% 633-964 (1597)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$34.95	$35.04	+$0.09	99% 1243-13 (1256)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$30.45	$30.45	+$0	49% 769-816 (1585)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.36	$19.36	-$0	50% 704-694 (1398)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$28.97	$18.17	-$0.95	39% 3622-5713 (9335)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6.13	$6.13	-$0	58% 705-507 (1212)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.45	$0.24	-$21.22	63% 720-431 (1151)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$21.01	$0.23	-$20.78	44% 5060-6556 (11616)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.04	$0	-$0.04	31% 157-344 (501)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$67.97

Value

$69.93

PnL

+$1.96

Record

40%

633-964 (1597)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$34.95

Value

$35.04

PnL

+$0.09

Record

99%

1243-13 (1256)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$30.45

Value

$30.45

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

769-816 (1585)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$19.36

Value

$19.36

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

704-694 (1398)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$28.97

Value

$18.17

PnL

-$0.95

Record

39%

3622-5713 (9335)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$6.13

Value

$6.13

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

705-507 (1212)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.45

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$21.22

Record

63%

720-431 (1151)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.01

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$20.78

Record

44%

5060-6556 (11616)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

PnL

-$0.04

Record

31%

157-344 (501)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.