Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on November 13?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 99¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$149.03

Combined PnL

-$15.25

Smart Money Entry

96.4¢ → 99.3¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$148.08

Total Shares149

Combined PnL+$4.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.94

Total Shares229

Combined PnL-$19.26

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96¢	$124.8	$129.61	+$4.81	37% 482-817 (1299)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$5.1	$5.08	-$0.02	48% 644-696 (1340)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$14.98	$4.97	-$0.83	40% 3403-5074 (8477)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99¢	$4.85	$4.89	+$0.03	59% 585-415 (1000)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99¢	$3.5	$3.52	+$0.02	99% 862-9 (871)
HE hello.67CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$19.51	$0.86	-$18.65	60% 2190-1463 (3653)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$0.22	$0.06	-$0.15	53% 1163-1023 (2186)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.48	$0.02	-$0.46	13% 54-364 (418)

241532532432

Invested

$124.8

Value

$129.61

PnL

+$4.81

Record

37%

482-817 (1299)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

644-696 (1340)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$14.98

Value

$4.97

PnL

-$0.83

Record

40%

3403-5074 (8477)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.03

Record

59%

585-415 (1000)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$3.5

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

862-9 (871)

hello.67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.51

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$18.65

Record

60%

2190-1463 (3653)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

1163-1023 (2186)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.46

Record

13%

54-364 (418)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.