Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 13?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 87¢ · $945 held · ends Nov 13

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$944.83

Combined PnL

$15.14

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 86.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$941.17

Total Shares1,112

Combined PnL+$16.23

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.48

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$1.09

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67	Noavg 85.1¢	$543.31	$440.1	-$0.21	63% 2143-1256 (3399)
24 241532532432	Noavg 82.7¢	$395.67	$407.84	+$17.42	35% 414-754 (1168)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 89¢	$53.4	$49.8	-$3.6	76% 675-216 (891)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.6¢	$33.64	$28.52	+$1.42	53% 933-821 (1754)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.48	$4.78	+$0.3	48% 512-557 (1069)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.92	$4.35	+$0.43	58% 482-347 (829)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 80¢	$3.92	$4.24	+$0.32	62% 472-292 (764)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 78¢	$1.39	$1.55	+$0.15	45% 522-645 (1167)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$1.8	$1.28	-$0.52	28% 165-432 (597)
1D 1DVSBSTDCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1	$1.12	+$0.12	99% 675-8 (683)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$1.76	$1.08	-$0.68	12% 37-271 (308)

hello.67

Invested

$543.31

Value

$440.1

PnL

-$0.21

Record

63%

2143-1256 (3399)

241532532432

Invested

$395.67

Value

$407.84

PnL

+$17.42

Record

35%

414-754 (1168)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

$49.8

PnL

-$3.6

Record

76%

675-216 (891)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$33.64

Value

$28.52

PnL

+$1.42

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.78

PnL

+$0.3

Record

48%

512-557 (1069)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$0.43

Record

58%

482-347 (829)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$3.92

Value

$4.24

PnL

+$0.32

Record

62%

472-292 (764)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

522-645 (1167)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoGCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.28

PnL

-$0.52

Record

28%

165-432 (597)

1DVSBSTDCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

99%

675-8 (683)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.68

Record

12%

37-271 (308)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.