Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on November 1?
Resolved No. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Yes 75%
$112.35
-$191.88
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 63.1¢ | $64.13 | $112.35 | +$48.23 | 50% 1908-1873 (3781) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $64.78 | — | -$64.78 | 54% 467-391 (858) |
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33¢ | $80.2 | — | -$80.2 | 62% 1447-905 (2352) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $95.13 | — | -$95.13 | 59% 1921-1351 (3272) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 83.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21345-13642 (34987) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6690-5888 (12578) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 73.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 365-1641 (2006) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
Invested
$64.13
Value
$112.35
PnL
+$48.23
Record
50%
1908-1873 (3781)
Invested
$64.78
Value
—
PnL
-$64.78
Record
54%
467-391 (858)
fildoroCTR<$100Invested
$80.2
Value
—
PnL
-$80.2
Record
62%
1447-905 (2352)
Invested
$95.13
Value
—
PnL
-$95.13
Record
59%
1921-1351 (3272)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21345-13642 (34987)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6690-5888 (12578)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
365-1641 (2006)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
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