Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on October 30?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 98¢ · $204 held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$204.11
$8
89.5¢ → 98.5¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 89.5¢ | $181.17 | $188.2 | +$7.03 | 50% 1694-1679 (3373) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $10.11 | $10.01 | -$0.04 | 24% 285-919 (1204) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $4.65 | $3.66 | -$0.99 | 60% 1652-1111 (2763) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.24 | $1.4 | +$1.16 | 61% 20778-13190 (33968) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.84 | $0.84 | +$0.84 | 36% 15021-27071 (42092) |
Invested
$181.17
Value
$188.2
PnL
+$7.03
Record
50%
1694-1679 (3373)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$10.11
Value
$10.01
PnL
-$0.04
Record
24%
285-919 (1204)
Invested
$4.65
Value
$3.66
PnL
-$0.99
Record
60%
1652-1111 (2763)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
$1.4
PnL
+$1.16
Record
61%
20778-13190 (33968)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$0.84
PnL
+$0.84
Record
36%
15021-27071 (42092)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.