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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYesYesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on October 30?
Resolved No. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
9
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$1.14
Smart Money Signal
Yes
8 of 9 top traders (89%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares13
Combined PnL-$1.14
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 89%No — 11%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $1.14 | — | -$1.14 | — 0-1 (1) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 21044-13396 (34440) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 48% 3443-3738 (7181) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 40% 409-609 (1018) |
PO pollo07CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 32% 335-718 (1053) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 32% 336-719 (1055) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 31% 315-688 (1003) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13663-10453 (24116) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yes | — | — | +$0 | 36% 15393-27456 (42849) |
0X
0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100Invested
$1.14
Value
—
PnL
-$1.14
Record
—
0-1 (1)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
21044-13396 (34440)
AL
alex20011CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
3443-3738 (7181)
ZE
zerone777CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
409-609 (1018)
PO
pollo07CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
335-718 (1053)
AK
akrollCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
336-719 (1055)
KL
klli27CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
315-688 (1003)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13663-10453 (24116)
XT
xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
15393-27456 (42849)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xd6e7e476...9ecebd
Slug
highest-temperature-in-paris-on-october-30-2026-13c