Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 27?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $295 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$295.42
$19.56
97.3¢ → 93.5¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 99.5¢ | $149.22 | $148.28 | -$0.94 | 61% 20494-12853 (33347) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 94.3¢ | $113.74 | $119.26 | +$5.52 | 53% 6226-5465 (11691) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $6.92 | $21.94 | +$15.02 | 61% 1522-962 (2484) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $5.98 | $5.94 | -$0.04 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
balthazarInvested
$149.22
Value
$148.28
PnL
-$0.94
Record
61%
20494-12853 (33347)
Invested
$113.74
Value
$119.26
PnL
+$5.52
Record
53%
6226-5465 (11691)
Invested
$6.92
Value
$21.94
PnL
+$15.02
Record
61%
1522-962 (2484)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$5.94
PnL
-$0.04
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.