Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (81%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 7?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 19¢ · $227 held · ends Nov 7

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$227.34

Combined PnL

$86.98

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$136.93

Total Shares901

Combined PnL+$94.06

No2 traders

Total Value$89.88

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$7.08

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 4.7¢	$42.17	$135.18	+$93.01	37% 898-1549 (2447)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.4¢	$62.42	$53.87	-$8.55	58% 21678-15777 (37455)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 79.2¢	$34.54	$36.01	+$1.47	54% 10724-9236 (19960)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$0.7	$1.75	+$1.05	42% 2418-3359 (5777)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$42.17

Value

$135.18

PnL

+$93.01

Record

37%

898-1549 (2447)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$62.42

Value

$53.87

PnL

-$8.55

Record

58%

21678-15777 (37455)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$34.54

Value

$36.01

PnL

+$1.47

Record

54%

10724-9236 (19960)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.7

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$1.05

Record

42%

2418-3359 (5777)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 19%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 81%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance21.2%

19.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$371.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

471.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.