Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 4?

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 78¢ · $979 held · ends Nov 4

Yes22¢No78¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$978.57

Combined PnL

$181.53

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 78¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$750.5

Total Shares890

Combined PnL+$113.61

Yes8 traders

Total Value$228.07

Total Shares1,083

Combined PnL+$67.91

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 86.9¢	$322.4	$246.27	+$14.04	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 14.5¢	$107.98	$164.28	+$56.3	42% 779-1075 (1854)
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 44.5¢	$109.3	$139.42	+$110.6	51% 3482-3360 (6842)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 77.5¢	$134.76	$136.46	+$1.7	56% 606-485 (1091)
Lucerys	Noavg 87.6¢	$140.76	$131.03	-$9.73	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.4¢	$46.25	$57	+$10.75	58% 2445-1789 (4234)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88¢	$32.56	$30.71	-$1.85	20% 2469-9863 (12332)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$24.02	$22.84	-$1.18	53% 9606-8430 (18036)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$45.5	$22.64	-$0.55	58% 18597-13721 (32318)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$15.75	$11.78	+$0.48	50% 473-472 (945)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 83¢	$5.02	$5.14	+$0.12	40% 1008-1504 (2512)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$12.02	$4.22	-$0.01	47% 1602-1786 (3388)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$1.6	$1.74	+$0.14	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.52	$1.59	+$0.07	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$1.01	$1.31	+$0.3	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$0.81	$0.9	+$0.1	39% 974-1548 (2522)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$0.68	$0.79	+$0.11	40% 2066-3099 (5165)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.5¢	$0.31	$0.47	+$0.15	40% 980-1494 (2474)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$322.4

Value

$246.27

PnL

+$14.04

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$107.98

Value

$164.28

PnL

+$56.3

Record

42%

779-1075 (1854)

haveagoodday

Invested

$109.3

Value

$139.42

PnL

+$110.6

Record

51%

3482-3360 (6842)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$134.76

Value

$136.46

PnL

+$1.7

Record

56%

606-485 (1091)

Lucerys

Invested

$140.76

Value

$131.03

PnL

-$9.73

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.25

Value

$57

PnL

+$10.75

Record

58%

2445-1789 (4234)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$32.56

Value

$30.71

PnL

-$1.85

Record

20%

2469-9863 (12332)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$24.02

Value

$22.84

PnL

-$1.18

Record

53%

9606-8430 (18036)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$45.5

Value

$22.64

PnL

-$0.55

Record

58%

18597-13721 (32318)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

473-472 (945)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.14

PnL

+$0.12

Record

40%

1008-1504 (2512)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$12.02

Value

$4.22

PnL

-$0.01

Record

47%

1602-1786 (3388)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.74

PnL

+$0.14

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.59

PnL

+$0.07

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.31

PnL

+$0.3

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.81

Value

$0.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

39%

974-1548 (2522)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.79

PnL

+$0.11

Record

40%

2066-3099 (5165)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.47

PnL

+$0.15

Record

40%

980-1494 (2474)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.