Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 7?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $317 held · ended Nov 7

Yes7¢No93¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$317.39

Combined PnL

$10.11

Smart Money Entry

19.1¢ → 6.5¢

-66% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$259.61

Total Shares277

Combined PnL+$109.94

Yes2 traders

Total Value$57.77

Total Shares825

Combined PnL-$99.83

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 24.4¢	$35.8	$84.18	+$81.95	39% 1298-2033 (3331)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 69.4¢	$47.31	$66.51	+$19.2	13% 589-3865 (4454)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82.3¢	$49.68	$55.51	+$5.83	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 19.6¢	$560.9	$42.04	-$75.54	37% 903-1557 (2460)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$35.35	$38	+$2.65	17% 4526-22231 (26757)
BI BilberryCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.8¢	$40.01	$15.73	-$24.28	53% 4144-3712 (7856)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$13.04	$9.49	-$0.24	39% 2430-3869 (6299)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 63¢	$3.93	$5.93	+$0.53	54% 10730-9241 (19971)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$35.8

Value

$84.18

PnL

+$81.95

Record

39%

1298-2033 (3331)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$47.31

Value

$66.51

PnL

+$19.2

Record

13%

589-3865 (4454)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$49.68

Value

$55.51

PnL

+$5.83

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$560.9

Value

$42.04

PnL

-$75.54

Record

37%

903-1557 (2460)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$35.35

Value

$38

PnL

+$2.65

Record

17%

4526-22231 (26757)

BilberryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.01

Value

$15.73

PnL

-$24.28

Record

53%

4144-3712 (7856)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$13.04

Value

$9.49

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

2430-3869 (6299)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$3.93

Value

$5.93

PnL

+$0.53

Record

54%

10730-9241 (19971)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.