Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 4?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 98¢ · $701 held · ends Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$701.16

Combined PnL

$3.2

Smart Money Entry

98.2¢ → 98.4¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$700.47

Total Shares704

Combined PnL+$3.54

Yes5 traders

Total Value$0.69

Total Shares35

Combined PnL-$0.34

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98.7¢	$366.05	$263.68	-$0.05	60% 11493-7614 (19107)
Lucerys	Noavg 98.3¢	$186.99	$187.13	+$0.14	79% 11970-3164 (15134)
24 241532532432	Noavg 97.4¢	$172.16	$175.13	+$2.96	58% 2448-1791 (4239)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$58.94	$29.58	-$0.11	62% 14557-9101 (23658)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$23.68	$24.28	+$0.6	58% 18645-13742 (32387)
AN anothercoin<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	$17.57	$12.61	+$0.01	50% 481-480 (961)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$5.05	$5.04	-$0	39% 976-1556 (2532)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$3.04	$3.03	-$0.01	40% 2075-3116 (5191)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.16	$0.2	+$0.04	47% 1604-1792 (3396)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.44	$0.19	-$0.25	47% 2049-2324 (4373)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$0.31	$0.15	-$0.15	38% 962-1579 (2541)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$0.09	$0.11	+$0.02	55% 4345-3526 (7871)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$0	40% 1032-1521 (2553)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$366.05

Value

$263.68

PnL

-$0.05

Record

60%

11493-7614 (19107)

Lucerys

Invested

$186.99

Value

$187.13

PnL

+$0.14

Record

79%

11970-3164 (15134)

241532532432

Invested

$172.16

Value

$175.13

PnL

+$2.96

Record

58%

2448-1791 (4239)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$58.94

Value

$29.58

PnL

-$0.11

Record

62%

14557-9101 (23658)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$23.68

Value

$24.28

PnL

+$0.6

Record

58%

18645-13742 (32387)

anothercoin<$100

Invested

$17.57

Value

$12.61

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

481-480 (961)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

976-1556 (2532)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$3.04

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$0.01

Record

40%

2075-3116 (5191)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.04

Record

47%

1604-1792 (3396)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$0.25

Record

47%

2049-2324 (4373)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

962-1579 (2541)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.09

Value

$0.11

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

4345-3526 (7871)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0

Record

40%

1032-1521 (2553)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.62

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.