Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 16?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (22%) · No at 100¢ · $176 held · ends Nov 16

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 22%

Total Value

$176.17

Combined PnL

-$44.2

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$174.13

Total Shares175

Combined PnL-$0.54

Yes7 traders

Total Value$2.04

Total Shares408

Combined PnL-$43.66

No — 22%Yes — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.8¢	$134.73	$134.33	-$0.41	39% 334-532 (866)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.93	$39.8	-$0.13	36% 339-612 (951)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.17	$0.67	-$11.5	30% 1182-2734 (3916)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$10.55	$0.58	-$9.97	47% 1255-1396 (2651)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$7.27	$0.4	-$6.87	42% 5221-7153 (12374)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$93.44	$0.13	-$10.32	35% 3914-7277 (11191)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.18	$0.12	-$2.06	14% 104-631 (735)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.92	$0.11	-$1.81	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.18	$0.04	-$1.13	36% 1635-2868 (4503)

god83743894

Invested

$134.73

Value

$134.33

PnL

-$0.41

Record

39%

334-532 (866)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$39.93

Value

$39.8

PnL

-$0.13

Record

36%

339-612 (951)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.17

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$11.5

Record

30%

1182-2734 (3916)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.55

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$9.97

Record

47%

1255-1396 (2651)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.27

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$6.87

Record

42%

5221-7153 (12374)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.44

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$10.32

Record

35%

3914-7277 (11191)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.18

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$2.06

Record

14%

104-631 (735)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.92

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$1.81

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.13

Record

36%

1635-2868 (4503)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.