Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on November 15?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $35 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$35.13

Combined PnL

-$27.18

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$34.98

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.02

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares301

Combined PnL-$27.2

No — 10%Yes — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$34.97	$34.98	+$0.02	99% 1449-21 (1470)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.1	$0.03	-$6.07	35% 3830-6996 (10826)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$4.82	$0.03	-$4.79	46% 1163-1351 (2514)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.74	$0.02	-$3.72	28% 1057-2761 (3818)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.47	$0.02	-$3.45	28% 3241-8219 (11460)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.96	$0.02	-$2.95	43% 5134-6831 (11965)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.91	$0.02	-$2.89	24% 108-347 (455)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.98	$0.01	-$1.97	25% 733-2166 (2899)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	31% 1085-2425 (3510)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0	-$0.45	39% 3708-5917 (9625)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$34.97

Value

$34.98

PnL

+$0.02

Record

99%

1449-21 (1470)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$6.07

Record

35%

3830-6996 (10826)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.82

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$4.79

Record

46%

1163-1351 (2514)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.74

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.72

Record

28%

1057-2761 (3818)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.47

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$3.45

Record

28%

3241-8219 (11460)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.96

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.95

Record

43%

5134-6831 (11965)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.89

Record

24%

108-347 (455)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.98

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.97

Record

25%

733-2166 (2899)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

31%

1085-2425 (3510)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 40%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 40% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.