Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on November 15?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 100¢ · $94 held · ends Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$93.7

Combined PnL

-$3.26

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$93.63

Total Shares94

Combined PnL-$0.36

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.06

Total Shares21

Combined PnL-$2.9

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$39.9	$39.96	+$0.06	42% 1671-2307 (3978)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$16.28	$16.33	+$0.05	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.72	$11.71	-$0.01	58% 839-597 (1436)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.16	$5.16	-$0.01	59% 843-574 (1417)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.15	$5.15	+$0	53% 882-796 (1678)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.45	$5	-$0.45	38% 3779-6149 (9928)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$4	$3.99	-$0	50% 894-902 (1796)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$3.82	$3.82	-$0	49% 828-850 (1678)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1517-23 (1540)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.01	$0.03	-$0.98	28% 1077-2772 (3849)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.62	$0.03	-$1.92	24% 762-2435 (3197)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$39.9

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

42%

1671-2307 (3978)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$16.28

Value

$16.33

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$11.72

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

839-597 (1436)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$0.01

Record

59%

843-574 (1417)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.15

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

882-796 (1678)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$5.45

Value

PnL

-$0.45

Record

38%

3779-6149 (9928)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

894-902 (1796)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.82

Value

$3.82

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

828-850 (1678)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1517-23 (1540)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.98

Record

28%

1077-2772 (3849)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.62

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.92

Record

24%

762-2435 (3197)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.