Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 14?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $126 held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$126.14

Combined PnL

-$43.55

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$125.46

Total Shares126

Combined PnL-$2.28

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.67

Total Shares360

Combined PnL-$41.27

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$70.15	$70.42	+$0.27	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$29.58	$27.02	-$2.56	34% 244-467 (711)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.2	$10.2	+$0	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$10.16	$10.16	+$0.01	49% 753-797 (1550)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.15	$5.16	+$0	58% 703-515 (1218)
1D 1DVSBSTD<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.5	$2.5	+$0	99% 1281-15 (1296)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$20	$0.3	-$19.12	31% 161-352 (513)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.28	$0.28	+$0	14% 82-514 (596)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$3.18	$0.07	-$3.11	39% 3636-5765 (9401)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.45	$0.01	-$0.44	37% 1527-2596 (4123)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$150.89	$0.01	-$14.91	36% 3754-6795 (10549)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$32.7	$0	-$3.69	29% 3178-7933 (11111)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$70.15

Value

$70.42

PnL

+$0.27

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.58

Value

$27.02

PnL

-$2.56

Record

34%

244-467 (711)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$10.16

Value

$10.16

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

753-797 (1550)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

1DVSBSTD<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

1281-15 (1296)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$19.12

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$0

Record

14%

82-514 (596)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.18

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.11

Record

39%

3636-5765 (9401)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.44

Record

37%

1527-2596 (4123)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$150.89

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$14.91

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.7

Value

PnL

-$3.69

Record

29%

3178-7933 (11111)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.