Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or higher on November 14?
1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (11%) · No at 100¢ · $165 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 11%
$165.21
-$51.96
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 9 top traders (11%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1D 1DVSBSTD | Noavg 99.9¢ | $164.84 | $164.92 | +$0.08 | 99% 1281-15 (1296) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $20 | $0.11 | -$19.89 | 31% 161-352 (513) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $15.38 | $0.08 | -$15.3 | 36% 3754-6795 (10549) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $4.32 | $0.02 | -$4.3 | 26% 548-1577 (2125) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.8 | $0.02 | -$3.78 | 29% 3178-7933 (11111) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.18 | $0.02 | -$3.16 | 39% 3636-5765 (9401) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $0.01 | -$2.71 | 34% 244-467 (711) |
QU quietparcelCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.47 | $0.01 | -$2.45 | 34% 229-452 (681) |
AN anothercoinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $0.45 | $0 | -$0.45 | 37% 1527-2596 (4123) |
Invested
$164.84
Value
$164.92
PnL
+$0.08
Record
99%
1281-15 (1296)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$0.11
PnL
-$19.89
Record
31%
161-352 (513)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$15.38
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$15.3
Record
36%
3754-6795 (10549)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$4.3
Record
26%
548-1577 (2125)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.78
Record
29%
3178-7933 (11111)
Invested
$3.18
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.16
Record
39%
3636-5765 (9401)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.71
Record
34%
244-467 (711)
Invested
$2.47
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.45
Record
34%
229-452 (681)
Invested
$0.45
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.45
Record
37%
1527-2596 (4123)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.