Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 14?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 61¢ · $291 held · ends Nov 14

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$291.08

Combined PnL

$111.33

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 61.2¢

+10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$164.22

Total Shares477

Combined PnL+$99.43

No10 traders

Total Value$126.84

Total Shares193

Combined PnL+$11.9

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HaradwaithCTR	Yesavg 30.3¢	$189.48	$85.05	+$58.61	31% 161-352 (513)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.8¢	$70.79	$53.4	-$17.39	55% 1093-897 (1990)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 50.2¢	$35.39	$44.34	+$8.95	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
HE hello.67<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$29.15	$30.44	+$1.29	55% 2285-1885 (4170)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$42.87	$22.26	-$3.12	40% 650-980 (1630)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$20.68	$19.68	-$0.99	52% 1696-1538 (3234)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 58.2¢	$5.96	$6.43	+$0.48	51% 804-766 (1570)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 63.5¢	$6.49	$6.43	-$0.06	49% 785-823 (1608)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 47.3¢	$4.83	$6.42	+$1.59	51% 769-727 (1496)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$3.96	$3.96	+$0	34% 252-482 (734)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 50.8¢	$7.77	$3.35	+$0.42	72% 853-335 (1188)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.33	$3.22	-$0.11	59% 724-513 (1237)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 31.6¢	$2.29	$2.69	+$0.4	46% 1095-1300 (2395)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$2.22	$2.56	+$0.34	58% 703-515 (1218)
LucerysCTR	Yesavg 9.1¢	$105.15	$0.82	+$60.93	36% 3754-6795 (10549)

HaradwaithCTR

Yes

Invested

$189.48

Value

$85.05

PnL

+$58.61

Record

31%

161-352 (513)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.79

Value

$53.4

PnL

-$17.39

Record

55%

1093-897 (1990)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$35.39

Value

$44.34

PnL

+$8.95

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

hello.67<$100

Invested

$29.15

Value

$30.44

PnL

+$1.29

Record

55%

2285-1885 (4170)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.87

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$3.12

Record

40%

650-980 (1630)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$20.68

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$0.99

Record

52%

1696-1538 (3234)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$6.43

PnL

+$0.48

Record

51%

804-766 (1570)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$6.43

PnL

-$0.06

Record

49%

785-823 (1608)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$1.59

Record

51%

769-727 (1496)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$3.96

Value

$3.96

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

252-482 (734)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$7.77

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.42

Record

72%

853-335 (1188)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.22

PnL

-$0.11

Record

59%

724-513 (1237)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.29

Value

$2.69

PnL

+$0.4

Record

46%

1095-1300 (2395)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$2.22

Value

$2.56

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

703-515 (1218)

LucerysCTR

Yes

Invested

$105.15

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$60.93

Record

36%

3754-6795 (10549)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Mature

23h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.3%

61.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.