Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on November 13?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $367 held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$366.57

Combined PnL

$2.19

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 97.4¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$366.57

Total Shares375

Combined PnL+$2.19

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 96.2¢	$100.97	$102.71	+$1.74	37% 461-788 (1249)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 97.6¢	$100.62	$100.86	+$0.24	53% 6255-5540 (11795)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97¢	$36.24	$36.32	+$0.21	54% 1036-900 (1936)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$29.25	$29.34	+$0.09	29% 141-351 (492)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$26.63	$26.47	-$0.16	21% 104-396 (500)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$23.19	$22.96	-$0.23	58% 539-397 (936)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$14.28	$14.21	-$0.07	28% 977-2569 (3546)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 94.1¢	$9.41	$9.78	+$0.37	40% 3331-4971 (8302)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$6.98	$7	+$0.02	48% 568-611 (1179)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$6.04	$6.01	-$0.04	48% 547-584 (1131)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 97.8¢	$5.88	$5.88	+$0	45% 586-703 (1289)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$5.02	$5.03	+$0.01	43% 900-1206 (2106)

241532532432

Invested

$100.97

Value

$102.71

PnL

+$1.74

Record

37%

461-788 (1249)

cigarettes

Invested

$100.62

Value

$100.86

PnL

+$0.24

Record

53%

6255-5540 (11795)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$36.24

Value

$36.32

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

1036-900 (1936)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$29.25

Value

$29.34

PnL

+$0.09

Record

29%

141-351 (492)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$26.63

Value

$26.47

PnL

-$0.16

Record

21%

104-396 (500)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$23.19

Value

$22.96

PnL

-$0.23

Record

58%

539-397 (936)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$14.28

Value

$14.21

PnL

-$0.07

Record

28%

977-2569 (3546)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.41

Value

$9.78

PnL

+$0.37

Record

40%

3331-4971 (8302)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$6.98

Value

PnL

+$0.02

Record

48%

568-611 (1179)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$6.04

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.04

Record

48%

547-584 (1131)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.88

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

586-703 (1289)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.03

PnL

+$0.01

Record

43%

900-1206 (2106)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 12 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.