Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on November 13?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 100¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$210.32

Combined PnL

-$1.1

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.7¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$210.29

Total Shares211

Combined PnL+$0.01

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.04

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$1.11

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$58.29	$58.32	+$0.02	53% 6255-5540 (11795)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$44.35	$44.4	+$0.04	28% 118-304 (422)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$29.94	$29.88	-$0.06	21% 104-396 (500)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$27.01	$26.95	-$0.05	40% 1500-2235 (3735)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$21.23	$21.26	+$0.02	61% 536-338 (874)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$12.11	$12.11	-$0	60% 528-346 (874)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99¢	$9.9	$9.96	+$0.06	40% 3331-4971 (8302)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5.13	$5.12	-$0.02	48% 547-584 (1131)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.3	$2.29	-$0	46% 574-663 (1237)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.15	$0.04	-$1.11	46% 4876-5704 (10580)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$58.29

Value

$58.32

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

6255-5540 (11795)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$44.35

Value

$44.4

PnL

+$0.04

Record

28%

118-304 (422)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.94

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.06

Record

21%

104-396 (500)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$27.01

Value

$26.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

40%

1500-2235 (3735)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$21.23

Value

$21.26

PnL

+$0.02

Record

61%

536-338 (874)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.11

Value

$12.11

PnL

-$0

Record

60%

528-346 (874)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.9

Value

$9.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

40%

3331-4971 (8302)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.12

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

547-584 (1131)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

574-663 (1237)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.11

Record

46%

4876-5704 (10580)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.