Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C or higher on November 13?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $378 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$378.3

Combined PnL

-$2.13

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$378.28

Total Shares379

Combined PnL-$0.09

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.02

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$2.04

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1D 1DVSBSTD	Noavg 99.9¢	$299.7	$299.7	+$0	99% 809-8 (817)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$44.49	$44.42	-$0.07	29% 918-2203 (3121)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.73	$18.73	+$0	53% 6285-5568 (11853)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.15	$7.14	-$0.01	61% 541-351 (892)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$6	$5.99	-$0.01	43% 903-1214 (2117)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.3	$2.29	-$0	48% 575-615 (1190)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.15	$0.01	-$1.14	46% 4881-5723 (10604)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$0.91	$0.01	-$0.9	40% 3344-4978 (8322)

1DVSBSTD

Invested

$299.7

Value

$299.7

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

809-8 (817)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$44.49

Value

$44.42

PnL

-$0.07

Record

29%

918-2203 (3121)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.73

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6285-5568 (11853)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.01

Record

61%

541-351 (892)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

43%

903-1214 (2117)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

575-615 (1190)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.14

Record

46%

4881-5723 (10604)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.91

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.9

Record

40%

3344-4978 (8322)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.