Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on November 13?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $104 held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$104.48

Combined PnL

-$14.38

Smart Money Entry

99.9¢ → 99.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$103.62

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$0.29

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.87

Total Shares157

Combined PnL-$14.09

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$29.97	$29.84	-$0.13	21% 104-396 (500)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$21.3	$21.2	-$0.1	48% 568-611 (1179)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$18.73	$18.73	+$0	53% 6255-5540 (11795)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$14.52	$14.45	-$0.07	40% 1500-2235 (3735)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$9.95	$9.99	+$0.04	40% 3331-4971 (8302)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$7.15	$7.12	-$0.03	58% 539-397 (936)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$2.3	$2.29	-$0.01	48% 610-661 (1271)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.92	$0.48	-$8.14	36% 3518-6134 (9652)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.19	$0.31	-$4.87	20% 123-497 (620)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.15	$0.07	-$1.08	46% 4876-5704 (10580)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.97

Value

$29.84

PnL

-$0.13

Record

21%

104-396 (500)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$21.3

Value

$21.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

568-611 (1179)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$18.73

Value

$18.73

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

6255-5540 (11795)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$14.52

Value

$14.45

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

1500-2235 (3735)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.95

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.04

Record

40%

3331-4971 (8302)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$7.15

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

539-397 (936)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.29

PnL

-$0.01

Record

48%

610-661 (1271)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.92

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$8.14

Record

36%

3518-6134 (9652)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.19

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$4.87

Record

20%

123-497 (620)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.08

Record

46%

4876-5704 (10580)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 50%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 50% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.