Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on November 13?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $275 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$274.65
-$0.79
99.5¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.5¢ | $125.32 | $124.89 | -$0.43 | 53% 6285-5568 (11853) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $86.63 | $86.32 | -$0.31 | 28% 979-2569 (3548) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $21.21 | $21.14 | -$0.07 | 48% 613-668 (1281) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $14.47 | $14.41 | -$0.07 | 29% 145-351 (496) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $10.48 | $10.56 | +$0.07 | 54% 1043-906 (1949) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $9.93 | $9.94 | +$0.01 | 40% 3344-4978 (8322) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $5.1 | $5.11 | +$0.01 | 60% 534-358 (892) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $2.29 | $2.28 | -$0.01 | 43% 903-1214 (2117) |
Invested
$125.32
Value
$124.89
PnL
-$0.43
Record
53%
6285-5568 (11853)
Invested
$86.63
Value
$86.32
PnL
-$0.31
Record
28%
979-2569 (3548)
Invested
$21.21
Value
$21.14
PnL
-$0.07
Record
48%
613-668 (1281)
Invested
$14.47
Value
$14.41
PnL
-$0.07
Record
29%
145-351 (496)
Invested
$10.48
Value
$10.56
PnL
+$0.07
Record
54%
1043-906 (1949)
Invested
$9.93
Value
$9.94
PnL
+$0.01
Record
40%
3344-4978 (8322)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$0.01
Record
60%
534-358 (892)
Invested
$2.29
Value
$2.28
PnL
-$0.01
Record
43%
903-1214 (2117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
cigarettes
No — $124.89
northdrawer
No — $86.32
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $21.14
godblessme2026
No — $14.41
ghorrock
No — $10.56
xtxpleasecallme
No — $9.94
0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658
No — $5.11
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $2.28