Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on November 13?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 11¢ · $520 held · ends Nov 13

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

Total Value

$519.97

Combined PnL

$69.52

Smart Money Entry

16.4¢ → 10.5¢

-36% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$350.27

Total Shares1,764

Combined PnL+$60.55

No6 traders

Total Value$169.7

Total Shares184

Combined PnL+$8.96

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE hello.67CTR	Yesavg 16.5¢	$235.4	$282.52	+$47.12	61% 2171-1370 (3541)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 87¢	$89.69	$92.28	+$2.6	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.9¢	$54.31	$67.75	+$13.44	37% 457-784 (1241)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 80¢	$21.65	$23.54	+$1.89	29% 911-2193 (3104)
PO Poligarch<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$18.87	$20.47	+$1.6	75% 712-239 (951)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83¢	$17.32	$20.1	+$2.78	54% 994-856 (1850)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 89¢	$8.9	$8.7	-$0.2	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.32	$4.6	+$0.28	61% 524-330 (854)

hello.67CTR

Yes

Invested

$235.4

Value

$282.52

PnL

+$47.12

Record

61%

2171-1370 (3541)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$89.69

Value

$92.28

PnL

+$2.6

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.31

Value

$67.75

PnL

+$13.44

Record

37%

457-784 (1241)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$23.54

PnL

+$1.89

Record

29%

911-2193 (3104)

Poligarch<$100

Invested

$18.87

Value

$20.47

PnL

+$1.6

Record

75%

712-239 (951)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.32

Value

$20.1

PnL

+$2.78

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$8.9

Value

$8.7

PnL

-$0.2

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.28

Record

61%

524-330 (854)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.0%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$732.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

832.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.