Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 13?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 60¢ · $408 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 38%
$407.7
$35.84
52.7¢ → 59.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+9 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 52.4¢ | $254.07 | $286.33 | +$32.26 | 58% 1038-744 (1782) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 44.5¢ | $44.5 | $38.26 | -$6.24 | 40% 3249-4894 (8143) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $33.12 | $31.81 | -$1.3 | 53% 6080-5448 (11528) |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Noavg 38.5¢ | $13.87 | $14.58 | +$0.71 | 35% 414-754 (1168) |
HE hello.67 | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $108.62 | $12.9 | +$10.29 | 63% 2143-1256 (3399) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $11.4 | $12.15 | +$0.75 | 29% 892-2183 (3075) |
PO Poligarch<$100 | Yesavg 63¢ | $6.97 | $6.59 | -$0.39 | 76% 675-216 (891) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $5.31 | $5.08 | -$0.23 | 53% 922-814 (1736) |
Invested
$254.07
Value
$286.33
PnL
+$32.26
Record
58%
1038-744 (1782)
Invested
$44.5
Value
$38.26
PnL
-$6.24
Record
40%
3249-4894 (8143)
Invested
$33.12
Value
$31.81
PnL
-$1.3
Record
53%
6080-5448 (11528)
Invested
$13.87
Value
$14.58
PnL
+$0.71
Record
35%
414-754 (1168)
Invested
$108.62
Value
$12.9
PnL
+$10.29
Record
63%
2143-1256 (3399)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$12.15
PnL
+$0.75
Record
29%
892-2183 (3075)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$6.59
PnL
-$0.39
Record
76%
675-216 (891)
Invested
$5.31
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$0.23
Record
53%
922-814 (1736)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.